The International Monetary Fund (IMF) has revised its economic growth projection for Nigeria in 2024 upward to 3.3%, marking an increase of 0.3 percentage points from the previous forecast of 3.0% published in January 2024. This upward revision was announced in the IMF’s World Economic Outlook report for April, which was released during the ongoing 2024 Spring Meetings of the World Bank and IMF in Washington, D.C.
However, the IMF has taken a more conservative stance regarding Nigeria’s economic growth prospects for 2025, reducing the forecast to 3.0%, a slight decrease from the previously projected 3.1%.
For the broader Sub-Saharan Africa region, the IMF has maintained its 3.8% economic growth forecast for 2024 but has revised the 2025 forecast downward to 4.0% from the previously projected 4.1%.
In terms of the global economic outlook, the IMF has modestly raised its growth forecast for 2024 to 3.2%, up from the 3.1% projected in the January 2024 World Economic Outlook. The forecast for 2025 remains unchanged at 3.2%.
According to the IMF report, “global growth, estimated at 3.2% in 2023, is projected to continue at the same pace in 2024 and 2025. The projection for 2024 is revised up by 0.1 percentage point from the January 2024 WEO Update and by 0.3 percentage point from the October 2023 WEO forecast. Nevertheless, the projection for global growth in 2024 and 2025 is below the historical (2000–19) annual average of 3.8%, reflecting restrictive monetary policies and withdrawal of fiscal support, as well as low underlying productivity growth.”
The report further elaborates that advanced economies are expected to see growth rise slightly, with the increase mainly reflecting a recovery in the euro area from low growth in 2023, whereas emerging market and developing economies are expected to experience stable growth through 2024 and 2025, with regional differences.
Specifically for sub-Saharan Africa, the IMF projects an increase in growth from an estimated 3.4% in 2023 to 3.8% in 2024 and 4.0% in 2025. The report states, “This positive outlook is attributed to the diminishing impact of previous weather shocks and gradual improvements in supply issues. The forecast for 2024 remains consistent with the January 2024 WEO Update, as negative adjustments for Angola due to a contraction in the oil sector are largely balanced by positive revisions for Nigeria.”