The World Bank predicts Nigeria’s gross domestic product (GDP) will expand by 3.7% in 2025, up from the 2.9% growth estimated for 2023.
In its “Global Economic Prospects” report, the World Bank says Nigeria’s economy will improve steadily over the next two years as President Bola Tinubu’s recent macro-fiscal reforms start to bear fruit. Key government reforms have included removing fuel subsidies and harmonising foreign exchange rates to spur infrastructure development, manufacturing, and technology.
Agriculture, construction, services, and trade are expected to drive economic growth through 2025. However, Nigeria still faces challenges like food insecurity and inflation that could hamper growth. Around 148.7 million Nigerians faced uncertain access to food from 2020–2022, more than double the 63.8 million from 2014–2016, says a 2023 United Nations report.
“Inflation should gradually ease as the effects of last year’s exchange rate reforms and the removal of fuel subsidies fade. These structural reforms are expected to boost fiscal revenue over the forecast period,” states the World Bank.
Nigeria’s significant currency reforms sparked short-term economic disruption, slowing GDP growth to an estimated 2.9% in 2023. But the World Bank sees momentum rebuilding over 2023–2025 as reforms take effect.
For all of Sub-Saharan Africa, the World Bank forecasts steady, if unspectacular, annual average growth around 3.5% over 2023–2025. Continued weak global metal prices and conflict have weighed on the region, but countries like Nigeria undertaking fiscal reforms could start to turn the tide.
The World Bank does warn Nigeria’s heavy debt burden, high living costs, and weak business climate pose downside risks. But if Nigeria stays on the reform course, its economic growth outlook seems set to improve over the next few years.